SUCCESS Score Validation in Fuchs Dystrophy

Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) is a progressive corneal disorder characterized by endothelial cell loss, corneal edema, and visual impairment. In patients with FECD and cataract, an important clinical challenge is to predict whether cataract surgery alone will suffice or whether endothelial keratoplasty (EK) will be required postoperatively. Accurate preoperative risk stratification is essential for surgical planning and patient counseling.

The SUCCESS Score, derived from Scheimpflug tomography, was proposed as an objective index to estimate the risk of postoperative corneal decompensation in FECD. However, its external multicenter validation and the potential contribution of corneal densitometry have not yet been fully established.

This ongoing prospective, observational, multicenter study aims to externally validate and extend the SUCCESS Score for predicting the need for EK after cataract surgery in patients with FECD. The study is being conducted across five tertiary referral centers in Spain. Eligible participants are adults with FECD grade ≥2 on the modified Krachmer scale and a visually significant cataract requiring phacoemulsification. Patients with epithelial edema, prior ocular surgery, corneal infection, or trauma are excluded.

Preoperative evaluation includes Scheimpflug tomography and corneal densitometry analysis. The primary outcome is the requirement for endothelial keratoplasty after cataract surgery, determined by postoperative visual function and corneal evaluation. Model performance will be assessed through discrimination (Harrell's C statistic), calibration, reclassification (IDI, NRI), and decision curve analysis to estimate clinical utility.

The primary analysis is scheduled for completion in October 2024. Extended follow-up will continue until June 25, 2026, to assess long-term predictive performance and generalizability of the extended SUCCESS model.

An interactive web-based calculator implementing both the original and extended SUCCESS models will be provided as a supplementary tool to facilitate clinical use and standardized patient counseling across participating centers.

• Model discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) of the SUCCESS Score [Срок оценки: At primary analysis (October 2024)]
• Calibration and predictive accuracy of the SUCCESS Score [Срок оценки: At primary analysis (June 2026)]
• Reclassification and clinical utility of the extended SUCCESS model [Срок оценки: At primary analysis (June 2026)]